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HOW DO YOU MEASURE SUCCESS IN NHL’S LARGEST RIVALRY: LEAFS OR HABS? WHO’S GOT THE EDGE?
NOVEMBER 8, 2024
AVA PEARSON
How does one measure success? Beyond the scoreboard, how do the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs stack up when we dig into the numbers?
The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs rivalry stands as one of the most storied in hockey. Known as “The Battle of the Original Six,” this Canadian face-off has captivated fans for nearly a century. But when measuring success between these two franchises, who’s had more success and the most failure over the years?
Historic Success: Championships and Wins
First, let’s compare championship victories. With a whopping 24 Stanley Cups, the Montreal Canadiens lead in historical success. In contrast, the Leafs have claimed 13 Cups, though they haven’t raised the trophy since 1967. This stark difference in championships suggests that the Canadiens have had the upper hand historically. Since 1967 and 1993, when both teams respectively won their last Stanley Cup until today, we can analyze their Playoff progress and success. The Leafs have made 36 playoff appearances compared to the Canadiens’ 17. However, Montreal has had more success advancing past the first round, including an impressive run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals.
Team Stats 2024: Analysis
Corsi For Percentage (CF%) measures the share of shot attempts (including blocked shots) that a team takes in comparison to its opponent, providing a snapshot of overall puck possession. The Leafs come in at 54.2% CF%, significantly outpacing the Canadiens at 49.5%. This suggests that Toronto is generally more effective at controlling the puck, which correlates with better offensive opportunities.
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Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) refines this possession metric by excluding blocked shots, focusing instead on unblocked attempts, which are more likely to be scoring threats. The Leafs hold the lead with 52.9% compared to the Canadiens’ 47.8%. This further emphasizes that Toronto not only controls the puck more but also generates a higher share of quality shot attempts. A higher FF% suggests that the Leafs more frequently break through the Canadiens’ defence, increasing their likelihood of scoring.
When we look beyond the scoreboard, the stats point to a clear trend: the Leafs generally have the upper hand. They dominate puck possession, create more quality scoring chances, and are slightly better in faceoffs and puck management.
All Time Head to Head Matchups
Spanning over a century from 1917 to the present, 769 head-to-head matchups and a consistent hard-fought rivalry. The Canadiens have consistently led in overall wins, reaching a total of 366 victories over the Leafs’ 314. This winning margin, while significant, reflects decades of hard-fought matchups where momentum often shifted year to year. 2,342 goals for Montreal and 2,150 goals for the Leafs, this gap reflects a longstanding edge that the Canadiens have maintained throughout NHL history.
Who’s had the edge and Who has the edge?
The intense rivalry, the screams of the fans, and the intensity of the arena will forever remain. How ever hard-fought each game was…the current data paints a more nuanced picture. The Habs have had the edge since the beginning of time, securing 24 Stanley Cup wins, record-breaking season-high results, and overall head-to-head matchup wins, but the tables have turned over the years. Advanced metrics like Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) show the Leafs now generally control possession better and generate higher-quality scoring chances, hinting at a power shift. Ultimately, while the Canadiens hold the legacy advantage, the Leafs’ recent analytics-driven dominance showcases their competitive edge in the present era.
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